The Problems

I’m on a downswing.

And I don’t really want to write about it, but I feel like I should.  Although this blog is my own personal outlet, I do my best to be straightforward and honest with my readers.  And right now, to be honest, I’m going through a rather difficult time.

When I decided to chase Supernova Elite, I had a vague idea of what I was in for: Higher buy-ins, bigger swings, better regs, and more self doubt.  But ultimately, at the end of the year, all of the mental anguish and financial stress would be worth a significant increase in my overall profits.  In short, mo’ money, mo’ problems.

It wasn’t exactly smooth sailing from the get-go as I had to get used to the variance, but after about a month a funny thing happened — all of that stress and anguish I worried about?  Poof.  It was gone.  The year was half over on July 1st and I was about halfway done with my grind.  At that point I was running slightly below EV, but not enough for me to complain.  I recalled all of the disgusting graphs and personal hells fellow players had went through on their quests for SNE and thought to myself, “Maybe it won’t happen to me. Hasn’t happened yet.  Maybe I’ll make it through the year without a soul-crushing downer.”

Nope.  Since July 1st, I’m more than $35,000 below EV.  That pesky EV line keeps chugging along (albeit at a lower ROI than I’d like, thanks to the green line dragging it down) but my good decisions haven’t been rewarded for about 12,000 games/430 hours.

graph35k

Because this isn’t bad enough, one of the clients is on a similar swing.  As his backer I’m responsible for his roll, so combined I’m more than $50,000 under EV in the past 120 days.  Bleh.

There’s not much I can do.  Stay positive.  Study.  Review.  I’ve always told myself that in the long run, things will even out, but I’m starting to question how long is the proverbial long run?  How many more thousand games do I have to play before things turn around?  How many more hours do I have to grind before I can win at something close to my true winrate?

I don’t know.  I’ve dropped the ABI a tad in hopes to lessen the variance, from $60 to about $50.  To get the same number of VPPs in slightly lower stakes means I have to grind slightly more hours.  Oh well.  Guess that means more carpal tunnel and worse vision for me.